My old blog has resurfaced in my mind again.

 There was an old attempt at reviving my blog a number of years ago. But the posts are half finished and poorly worded. This latest attempt is really more a snapshot of whatever I am thinking of at the moment.


My investment in OMH went parabolic in 2017, I tried to revive this blog in 2018. I almost had RM2million, but sadly its come down since then. I thought I would have at least RM5million in 5 years. But its been 6 and I am still stuck in this stupid company. There were so many issues with OMH's management, the company is such a great asset. But mismanagement has led to the share price underperforming over the years. I had so many good ideas. I should have sold this company when I had the chance.


The real estate market in China is at its bottom, there has been a number of attempts to stimulate demand from properties, which were languishing since 2021 due to the 3 red lines policy by the Chinese government. The 3 red lines is an attempt to control the amount of leverage in the developers of real estate in China. Presumably this was to prevent systemic risks in the event of a larger downturn. As Chinese real estate constitute a large percentage of Chinas GDP. The movement in apartment prices in China, is one of the most important indicators of demand for commodities in China and in the rest of the world. Many years ago, I heard the quote, "When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold". Its slowly becoming, America or China. 


The real estate market in China is relevant to me as OMH is producing ferroalloys, which are tied to the steel market. Which is one of the main inputs into construction and real estate in China.


The 3 red lines policy has cratered demand for properties in China, and there have been a number of policies since then that is attempting to revive the market. The latest, around September 2024, seems to have succeeded. These include, lowering the down payment for apartments to 15%. As well as loosening some restriction. Mortgage rates have come down almost 1% since last year in China. So the property market looks primed for a bull run.


The latest stimulus is indirectly targeting the real estate market. Or simply targeting Chinas economy, this involved cutting the Reserve rate requirement(RRR). In short it provides more liquidity in the economy. 



I have some other ideas, but I think I will wait until my OMH moves to RM3 or RM4 before I exit the company. It's been an absolute disaster. Company management really ruined the company.

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